A Heads Up for My UK Friends (and their friends)

[helwen]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1062089/Back-Dark-Ages-National-Grid-raises-spectre-blackouts-winter.html#

Just in case you haven't seen this yet...

Comments

[silverhawkdruid.livejournal.com]

Thanks Honey! That brought back happy (not) memories for me of the '74 power cuts, doing homework by candlelight, and freezing near to death that winter. I was 11 years old at the time. It was a horrible time, though we made the best of it, and did what we could while the power was on, and coped when the power was off.
The problem is that back then we were better equipped to cope, with open fires so you could keep warm and could toast bread and throw a pot of beans on to heat through and such, and candles and oil lamps were part of the fixtures and fittings in most households that we knew in our village.
Unfortunately, when the council did the refit of our house a couple of years ago they blocked up the fireplace. I can see us huddled round the gas cooker to keep warm this winter, always assuming they don't cut that off as well, of course. :-(

[silverhawkdruid.livejournal.com]

Sorry Honey. That came out a bit more negative than I intended.

[helwen.livejournal.com]

No worries. I was indeed thinking of you when I posted this, as well as any of your or Oakmouse's friends over there. I was just hoping a heads-up might give a chance for buying a few extra candles and such. Do you have a tent by any chance? That might be the easiest way to stay warm at night, is share a tent with T.

Do you have anything like our Freecycle.org? It's an online thing where people offer or ask for things on their local discussion group. Sometimes you can get some pretty useful stuff. We got the barrel for our first rainwater catchment that way, and we were able to give some extra blankets and stuff to some folks who'd just moved up from the southern part of the States and were a little overwhelmed by all the necessaries for prepping for winter.

We're having a meeting in town tonight, sort of about this problem, that some of our folks here may not be able to afford heating. And although it isn't noised about as publicly perhaps, our national grid isn't secure from blackouts either. Although usually they talk about it more during the summer.

[silverhawkdruid.livejournal.com]

No tent, but I am a member of Freecycle, and keep an eye out for things I can use. I like the exchange of goods Freecycle offers, and we also have periodical 'give and take' meetings, where you go along with goods you no longer need, and take home what you can use. They are very popular! :-)

Hope the meeting went well.

[helwen.livejournal.com]

Glad you have Freecycle! And the meetings sound great too.

Yes, our meeting went well and is looking promising. I think there will still be tough times, this winter and in future winters, but it's good to know we're not the only ones wanting to do something about it.

[ellid.livejournal.com]

I would like to see this in a source besides the Daily Mail. They're not exactly the most reliable (or truthful) British news source, unfortunately. If it hits The Economist or the Times, though.....

[helwen.livejournal.com]

In this case they may be viable.

at the London Times I found this article on National Grid's plans for upgrading:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/utilities/article4882347.ece

They need to do this because the system needs a huge overhaul and also to plan for growth. But in the immediate future of this current coming winter:

"The tenuous state of the UK’s energy infrastructure was highlighted last week when wholesale power prices jumped after the company warned that maintenance of several power stations would mean an unusually thin margin between supply and expected demand this winter."

From both Forbes and the National Grid web site itself, there is an 8-10 gigawatt margin (spare capacity) for this winter. This is if the winter needs proceed as predicted by the National Grid.

If on the other hand the winter needs are not as predicted -- heavy snow storm, unusually long cold snap, etc., they may indeed have problems with blackouts because of increased demands on power.

As a separate but related issue, the price of electricity may go up again, leaving those who can't afford it in unheated homes (something some folks in Ashfield will be meeting about tonight in fact, because the cost of heating is a big concern in the US as well of course).

Also from the London Times: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/utilities/article4870571.ece

"National Grid has given warning that there could be further sharp rises in electricity prices this winter amid mounting fears that Britain is facing a supply squeeze.

The power grid operator said that the loss of a number of key power stations for maintenance meant that the cushion of spare generating capacity is tight, particularly next month.

In an annual report intended to help big energy users to plan for winter, National Grid insisted that there would be enough power to meet overall demand. However, it noted that wholesale electricity prices might have to rise still higher from current record levels to encourage the operators of spare plants to bring on emergency capacity during peak demand periods.

“Provided the electricity market continues to make plant available in response to the appropriate price signals, demand should be able to be met in full, even in a harsh winter,” the report said."

Odd phrasing, but it looks like they're saying things will be touch and go for November ("thin"), but that if need be they can always raise the price of electricity to get spare plants to come online. Can't imagine why those plants wouldn't be online, unless they're not as efficient so they cost more to run, which would make sense.

So, Daily Mail might have made things a bit more fantastical but not improbable. If the weather isn't too bad, everything will be manageable. If not... simply said, they don't have much margin for error.

[helwen.livejournal.com]

Oops, update on figures, from the second article:

"Adding to concern about tight supplies next month, National Grid on Thursday cut its November power surplus forecast for the second time in a week. It trimmed it to 0.75 gigawatts for the week starting November 10, from earlier forecasts of 0.83 gigawatts. The cushion of spare capacity is normally more than ten times higher, at 10 gigawatts or more."

My decimals were in the wrong place. They normally have 10 gigs margin but are forecasting having only a 1/10th or less than that.

On the plus side for individuals, they've frozen prices until January, but there are predictions that some British factories may have to shut down because of the already-high cost of power. And of course that has fallout of various sorts as well.

[silverhawkdruid.livejournal.com]

If supply and demand rub along nicely, it will only be because so many people will be making themselves ill this winter, because they can't risk high fuel bills, or simply won't be able to afford to charge their cards some weeks. Sorry to be so angry about this, but the whole mess could have been pretty much avoided if the money had been gradually spend improving the system over the years instead of leaving it till they had no choice. And why choose the cold half of the year to do maintenance? It's crazy! Also they may have frozen prices until January, but that could be January 1st, with the whole of Jan and Feb on a much higher rate, and those months are the worst of the year as a general rule. Our gas already went up by 40% in Feb 2007, and up another 24% during the summer. The electricity increase wasn't that much less over the same period. The bills come out mid February 2009, and I am dreading my mid November '08 one badly enough. February's is going to be horrific even if we do try and trim things to a minimum.

[helwen.livejournal.com]

Believe me, I understand your anger. Although there's enough fuel here, not everyone can afford it -- heck, not everyone could last year.

And I realize that only going to January for the frozen pricing isn't enough, but it would still be worse if the prices went up now. Heating fuel prices here, for all that they dropped from this summer are still nearly twice what they were a year ago, at least in some places. Electricity went up 30% this year and it went up last year as well altough I don't remember by how much. Electricity wasn't something I had to worry as much about it going up, before I moved up here -- that was one of the nice things about Holyoke -- they have their own hydroelectric dam. Ah well...

Even wood has gone up because it costs more to cut and transport. And that's a renewable but limited resource -- demand has gone up but we can't supply more than the land will safely allow. We harvest dead and dying trees for the most part, so cutting happens when the woods decide it does.

[ellid.livejournal.com]

That's the kind of source I can take seriously. Thanks for the links!