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[personal profile] helwen
A few of us were just talking about this a few days ago... then Sharon Astyk, author of the Casaubon's Book blog, post this link as a must-read today: http://www.alternet.org/environment/68498/?page=entire

It's about drought, and while the focus is the U.S., the writer, Tom Englehardt, lists quite a few other places in the world. Here's one standout section about the U.S.:

According to the National Climate Data Center, federal officials have declared 43 percent of the contiguous US to be in "moderate to extreme drought." Already, Sonny Perdue of Georgia is embroiled in an ever more bitter conflict -- a "water war," as the headlines say -- with the governors of Florida and Alabama, as well as the Army Corps of Engineers, over the flow of water into and out of the Atlanta area.

He's hardly alone. After all, the Southwest is in the grips of what, according to Davis, some climatologists are terming a "'mega-drought,' even the 'worst in 500 years.' " More shockingly, he writes, such conditions may actually represent the region's new "normal weather."


The upper Midwest is joining in, w/ rain shortfall and a new record low for Lake Superior.

I'm glad Englehardt included the other countries, because I knew about some of them, but not all.

Interesting read, and good to find that somebody else out there is asking the questions that need to be asked. A typical job interview question I used to get -- don't know if anyone asks it anymore was "Where do you see yourself in five years?" In other words, what direction are you headed in, what are your goals, and do they mesh compatibly with the company? People living in the drought areas might want to ask themselves what they're going to do if the drought doesn't ease up in a few years... or even act sooner, if they're able. And for those of us who are better off water-wise, we may want to consider the ramifications of a mass migration on the local environment, resources, and economy. We may have the food, the water, the housing (affordable?), but do we have the jobs available, enough schools, etc.?

Who is prepared? Who was ready and able after Katrina? Some were more than others, thank goodness -- offers of places to stay were everywhere in the hurricane's aftermath -- in the case of entire states suffering from drought though, people will be coming from more than one city, as everyone finally figures out that you can't just live wherever you want to, regardless of the local resource limits.

Sometimes folks end up in interesting places, like the folks from New Orleans who now live where in little Ashfield, a hilltown with ~1,700 people. So really, if the drought is large enough and for long enough, and the various gov'ts can't truck in enough water after a while, folks from the drought areas could end up anywhere, in search of their new place to call home. So, who's ready? Are we all, migrant and resident alike, ready to adapt?

I'm nobody official, but I expect most folks around here will try to help newcomers. But many will feel the stress, some the threat to their livelihoods, and of course the friction of culture shock.

Yeah, culture shock -- that can be as bad as the job or housing market pressures. I've seen and experienced the interactions between folks from the north and south, east and west, etc. We may all be perfectly wonderful people but think the other person is too loud, too reserved, cold, crass, whatever. More than once I've heard from someone I liked and got along with, that he or she was going back home to the south, where people are more open and warm. We can be that up here, and are, but I guess the cold weather does lend itself to shorter conversations :D It can be hard to get to know folks here... once you do, it's all good. But it can be hard to figure out how to do that.

Hm. And what does culture shock have to do with drought? People will move if they have to, right? But one family moving to your town is different than 5 or 10 families. 1% increase is different from 10%. Now the incumbent culture is at risk of sudden change, and then friction and unpleasantness can result, crime can increase, at least until (hopefully) things settle down and folks learn to compromise, and get to know each other. The more people involved, the more friction. And of course unemployment and resource shortages aggravate any cultural issues, and vice versa.

So, some things to think about, while praying for rain in the 43% of the U.S. that needs it, Morocco, Australia, Ankhara in Turkey, Moldova, Canary Islands, Mexico, Peru, and other stricken places.

Date: 2007-11-28 01:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sileas-1.livejournal.com
Also interesting to consider that Henderson Nevada is still one of the fastest growing cities in the USA. I'm sure it's not the only desert city growing at that rate. Kind of makes you think that people are not listening to the warnings about global warming doesn't it?

Date: 2007-11-28 03:55 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] helwen.livejournal.com
Oh yes, there's Tuscon AZ and Phoenix AZ still growing, plus some idiots have submitted plans for a water park in Phoenix -- using the theoretical non-potable waters in the area... technology has always come to the rescue and will again, right? /sarcasm

Date: 2007-11-28 02:07 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] druidharper.livejournal.com
Worse than culture shock will be massive overcrowding if such things come to pass...not to mention drops in food production and supply if the midwest and southern droughts deepen. They've already destroyed one aquifer with over-pumping. Taking Massachusetts as an example, there are 6 million or so people in this state. Imagine that climbing by 10% or more and the resultant impact on infrastructure.

And it doesn't look like those droughts will ease; as has been said, this may be the new normal weather pattern. And it does make one wonder at the growth rate of desert towns; people either don't listen or simply don't want to believe.

Hard choices lie ahead.

Date: 2007-11-28 04:01 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] helwen.livejournal.com
I brought up culture differences in part because they'll figure into how people deal (or don't) with each other, in crowded conditions.

But yes, over-pumping and other irreversible abuses of limited resources are a real concern.

On a different subject, I'm wondering if the fields in Hadley and Sunderland would be suitable for growing something like hops -- picky crops are best handled by people already used to being detail-oriented... if the latest tobacco tax goes through, supposedly that will be the end of tobacco growing in MA. So....

Date: 2007-11-28 04:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] druidharper.livejournal.com
I've never grown hops myself, but I've know people who've done so for their private brewing...and I reckon it was grown before we had all our modern tech stuff to assist us, though doubtless far less efficiently than now.

Given that, and mindful that this isn't my subject, the Connecticut valley is exceptionally fertile and tends to be warmer than the surrounding areas to boot, so I don't see why it couldn't be grown here, at least the basic stuff anyway. I suspect though that they'll turn the fields over to things like field corn and legumes or some such.

Biofuel startups and food needs will probably see to that.

Date: 2007-11-28 01:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] helwen.livejournal.com
Biofuel... bleh. Although if they went for a perennial, that would be better for the soil and atmosphere at least (CO2 retention).

Food, yeah, once it's profitable enough...

Date: 2007-11-28 03:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] druidharper.livejournal.com
I'm with you on the biofuels, but they intend to start one in Greenfield here soon so that is why I figure field corn will replace tobacco, along with maybe legumes or something.

The food part may be forced sooner rather than later. Our economy is totally dependent on oil, not just partly. I suspect that long before the shortfall of supply and demand gets in the way, peak exports will occur...which amounts to the same general result. If food can't be transported cheaply, it'll become rather profitable for farmers to grow it locally and relatively rapidly I suspect.

Not that I think any such transition, if it occurs, will be anything like as smooth as I appear to paint it. We've never been here before so much of it is supposition based on certain 'known' aspects. Only time will really tell...but you know me, I'd rather get ready for something that doesn't happen than be stuck unprepared if it does. I'm just a touch paranoid that way. :) But in a good way, honest!

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