What-If Scenarios
Aug. 29th, 2007 07:38 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
helwenInteresting Archdruid Report today, including the comments.
Not having studied the Peak Oil or Climate Change groups in great detail, I wasn't terribly aware of the popularity of certain myths among lesser groups and/or individuals who have been learning about Peak Oil, etc., until I started reading JMG's posts about the narratives that inform people's views on life, and in particular in regard to the more uncomfortable changes our world and lives are currently going through. On reading his posts, I've looked around and indeed seen those narratives repeated at various web sites, in people's blogs or comments on blog posts. The top three narratives appear to be: Technology Will Save Us, A Sudden Disaster is Going to Happen So We Need to Head for the Hills, and It's the 11th Hour So We Need to Get Ourselves Together to Save the World (just like in the movies!).
It reminds me of the discussions my friend![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
embermwe and I used to have a couple of decades ago. We had a scenario she came up with -- The Japanese Invent an Amazing Widget and the U.S. Economy Collapses. Hey, it was the 80's.
Of course, neither of us believed that the economy would suddenly collapse, but putting things on a limited time schedule meant we were more likely to cut to the chase in our discussions of what things were useful, what actions to take.
Being in the SCA and being handy people, we had a diverse assortment of goods and skills between us and our friends....
For location, we decided the house we were in wasn't the best -- among other things, we were renters there, and there wasn't a lot of land. We talked about the farm in Ashfield, but the house there was already full of people (not a bad place to stop at on the way to our final destination). We decided our friends Ron and Ina in NH was the best location -- really big house with only two people in it, who liked our little group. And they already had 4 acres of land, plus neighbors were pretty far apart, so there was room for growth.
We talked about what sort of things would be good -- but small/easy-to-pack -- trade goods, like glasses and goblets (until glassmaking got underway in our area). I think that part of our discussions was a little on the weak side, but we were pretty young, too.
But we also talked about the necessary things to bring - food, seed for growing crops, fabric for future clothing/shelter needs, and of course books. There were plenty of bows/arrows/knives, etc. in the house. We decided that one mental health necessity would be the record player and records, since we could always rig it up to play manually.
And, we talked about the people who should be included. All the people we came up with had useful skills, and/or the ability and willingness to learn and to make-do. Most of us had general skills like cooking, gardening, starting fires, sewing, basic carpentry, first aid, etc. Any of the people on the list (including us) could build temporary shelters. Then there were a couple folks who had some hunting skill, and an EMT.
I remember we were going to take our vehicles north and then save any leftover gas from my car (1971 Buick LeSabre!!) to use in her little Chevette - for emergency use only, of course. The LeSabre was going to be added to the metal supply, seeing as the whole body -- including the bumpers -- was made of steel. (These wouldn't be the only vehicles going north, but were the only two we felt we had the right to make a decision about).
It was an interesting exercise and passed the time as we travelled around the valley for work, errands, or gaming. But the reason it came to my mind after reading the Archdruid's Report today, was that although we were pre-supposing a dramatic collapse (again, for convenience of focusing the exercise, not because we believed it would happen) -- we chose neither the survivalist, nor the techno-saviorist, nor the 11th-hour-heroic narrative.
Oh sure, we chose to head north to sparser territory, but not out into the wilderness, just a smaller town -- bringing friends to go live with other friends. We recognized that skills, knowledge (in books or people's heads), and experience were the most precious commodities for the long-term. After all, we didn't just want to survive, we wanted to live. We chose an intentional community.
That's something I've started noticing being discussed on blogs, email lists, and web sites -- community. From the more organized concept of the Transition Towns in the UK, to discussions of families or friends living nearer one another for support, to personal outreach within one's community.
One of the good things about the online email lists and such, like the one for Riot for Austerity, is that people have a place where they can talk about their successes & struggles, and ask for or receive help. People cheer each other on. Or you read of someone else doing the same things you're doing to save resources, and suddenly you don't feel so weird for doing it.
I personally don't really mind being considered strange, but for a number of folks online, it's a pretty big deal because they aren't getting support from their families, friends, co-workers. One has a friend on hearing that this person is trying to save water and energy, brags to her about only using a towel once before throwing it in the wash. Another has co-workers who thinks it's weird that she brings her lunch in containers, and uses a cloth napkin. And if some people get grief for little stuff like that, you can imagine the lack of support for more major stuff... These online lists are not the community you can live with long-term, but are a community that can help as you seek to find the place you can call home.
L and I are finding that we made a pretty good home here, in Holyoke. Now we'll be starting over -- even L, who's returning to the home of his youth, but is not the same person who left there. I'm sure we'll find our place there, just as we have here. And thank goodness for our communities -- both the physical and the virtual!
Not having studied the Peak Oil or Climate Change groups in great detail, I wasn't terribly aware of the popularity of certain myths among lesser groups and/or individuals who have been learning about Peak Oil, etc., until I started reading JMG's posts about the narratives that inform people's views on life, and in particular in regard to the more uncomfortable changes our world and lives are currently going through. On reading his posts, I've looked around and indeed seen those narratives repeated at various web sites, in people's blogs or comments on blog posts. The top three narratives appear to be: Technology Will Save Us, A Sudden Disaster is Going to Happen So We Need to Head for the Hills, and It's the 11th Hour So We Need to Get Ourselves Together to Save the World (just like in the movies!).
It reminds me of the discussions my friend
embermwe and I used to have a couple of decades ago. We had a scenario she came up with -- The Japanese Invent an Amazing Widget and the U.S. Economy Collapses. Hey, it was the 80's.Of course, neither of us believed that the economy would suddenly collapse, but putting things on a limited time schedule meant we were more likely to cut to the chase in our discussions of what things were useful, what actions to take.
Being in the SCA and being handy people, we had a diverse assortment of goods and skills between us and our friends....
For location, we decided the house we were in wasn't the best -- among other things, we were renters there, and there wasn't a lot of land. We talked about the farm in Ashfield, but the house there was already full of people (not a bad place to stop at on the way to our final destination). We decided our friends Ron and Ina in NH was the best location -- really big house with only two people in it, who liked our little group. And they already had 4 acres of land, plus neighbors were pretty far apart, so there was room for growth.
We talked about what sort of things would be good -- but small/easy-to-pack -- trade goods, like glasses and goblets (until glassmaking got underway in our area). I think that part of our discussions was a little on the weak side, but we were pretty young, too.
But we also talked about the necessary things to bring - food, seed for growing crops, fabric for future clothing/shelter needs, and of course books. There were plenty of bows/arrows/knives, etc. in the house. We decided that one mental health necessity would be the record player and records, since we could always rig it up to play manually.
And, we talked about the people who should be included. All the people we came up with had useful skills, and/or the ability and willingness to learn and to make-do. Most of us had general skills like cooking, gardening, starting fires, sewing, basic carpentry, first aid, etc. Any of the people on the list (including us) could build temporary shelters. Then there were a couple folks who had some hunting skill, and an EMT.
I remember we were going to take our vehicles north and then save any leftover gas from my car (1971 Buick LeSabre!!) to use in her little Chevette - for emergency use only, of course. The LeSabre was going to be added to the metal supply, seeing as the whole body -- including the bumpers -- was made of steel. (These wouldn't be the only vehicles going north, but were the only two we felt we had the right to make a decision about).
It was an interesting exercise and passed the time as we travelled around the valley for work, errands, or gaming. But the reason it came to my mind after reading the Archdruid's Report today, was that although we were pre-supposing a dramatic collapse (again, for convenience of focusing the exercise, not because we believed it would happen) -- we chose neither the survivalist, nor the techno-saviorist, nor the 11th-hour-heroic narrative.
Oh sure, we chose to head north to sparser territory, but not out into the wilderness, just a smaller town -- bringing friends to go live with other friends. We recognized that skills, knowledge (in books or people's heads), and experience were the most precious commodities for the long-term. After all, we didn't just want to survive, we wanted to live. We chose an intentional community.
That's something I've started noticing being discussed on blogs, email lists, and web sites -- community. From the more organized concept of the Transition Towns in the UK, to discussions of families or friends living nearer one another for support, to personal outreach within one's community.
One of the good things about the online email lists and such, like the one for Riot for Austerity, is that people have a place where they can talk about their successes & struggles, and ask for or receive help. People cheer each other on. Or you read of someone else doing the same things you're doing to save resources, and suddenly you don't feel so weird for doing it.
I personally don't really mind being considered strange, but for a number of folks online, it's a pretty big deal because they aren't getting support from their families, friends, co-workers. One has a friend on hearing that this person is trying to save water and energy, brags to her about only using a towel once before throwing it in the wash. Another has co-workers who thinks it's weird that she brings her lunch in containers, and uses a cloth napkin. And if some people get grief for little stuff like that, you can imagine the lack of support for more major stuff... These online lists are not the community you can live with long-term, but are a community that can help as you seek to find the place you can call home.
L and I are finding that we made a pretty good home here, in Holyoke. Now we'll be starting over -- even L, who's returning to the home of his youth, but is not the same person who left there. I'm sure we'll find our place there, just as we have here. And thank goodness for our communities -- both the physical and the virtual!
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no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 02:24 am (UTC)To be honest, that's why I use a laundromat instead of a washing machine. My mother and aunt *were* of the "if you use it once, wash it" school, and I found that they spent a LOT of time using those machines simply because they were there. I do laundry about every ten days and haven't noticed that my clothes have suffered, and I spend a lot less time on it than many people because I can do everything else at once...:)
no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 12:52 pm (UTC)I think some of it is mindset though, since I have a machine but don't go crazy with doing lots of laundry.
Lately I've had a bit more laundry to do, but then again, we've been working on the house and the farm, and getting very sweaty!
no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 12:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 12:54 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 01:42 pm (UTC)The community was already actively involved in hunting and fishing.... the berry fields were unbelievably rich.. we could never harvest even half of it in a season and that was with the whole town picking!! Of course we had a large native community there as well and so access to skills that perhaps we had not learned previously and would need.
We figured that the 6 months would give us a little lee way to time for the community to get organized after a big disaster .... i think we sort of envionsied it as some sort of big natural disaster ot war... and because we were so isolated in an essentially undesirable location, the immediate impact would not be so bad. In fact the community was ideally set up to help other folk since we had a fleet of airplanes ...also with 6 months of fuel on hand.... dog sleds with kamiks and canoes were in everyone's back yard so transport not a problem.... although we did know that if we had to walk out of labrador.. that was going to be one long hike.. so we even went through the exercise, of figuring out what we would take with us.. travel routes.. care of dogs etc
We spent a lot of interesting hours going thru the things that we would need.. and need to do for the community to continue reasonably well... It must have been the 'time' and I assume that a lot of us felt that a 'threat' was far too close....... interesting.....
no subject
Date: 2007-08-31 12:00 am (UTC)That community in Labrador sounds wonderful :)
As far as I've been able to tell, Canada seems to be doing pretty well overall? Here in the U.S., with so many people still displaced by Hurricane Rita (2 years!), I think it behooves us to think a little more seriously about preparedness. Heck, the more recent flooding we've had in some parts of the U.S., and the flooding in the U.K., should provide incentive. At least for water storage methods, if nothing else -- that seems to be the constant in all the natural disasters I've been seeing over the past decade or so -- so many people without safe water to drink.
Up in Ashfield, I don't think that will be an issue for us -- well and spring water, and a cistern too, IIRC. But I would imagine there are other concerns we could have up there, like making sure we have enough food in case of a really bad snowstorm or worse, an ice storm. Of course, I usually have a few months' worth of food in the house :D
Some of the wiring in the house got re-done this year, but I don't know how much, and how likely it is that we'll lose power in a bad storm. The folks have a little closet with lamps, flashlights, etc. in the kitchen. I prefer to have some of my light sources already in place, since we sometimes prefer it to electric lighting.
That will be one of my things to do up there -- learn what sorts of things we need to be prepared for.
Thanks for sharing your experience in Labrador!
no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 08:21 pm (UTC)(Every scenario I've come up with relies on the survival of some form of civil executive function after a disaster. Failing that, my imagination turns dark.)
But yes: D and I made lists of things to bring with us, skills to cultivate, people with whom to cluster, that sort of thing. Your depth of field is inspirational in these matters. I hadn't thought about bringing a car for the raw materials. :)
no subject
Date: 2007-08-30 11:45 pm (UTC)I'd like to think that Massachusetts is better at this sort of thing than some other places in the country. Hopefully we never have to find out!
Glad to hear you and D have worked on some plans and preparation. Ours include topo maps and a compass, in case the roads are too messed up for vehicle travel and our house wasn't habitable. Of course with the house renovations we haven't had much time for hiking, to learn the terrain around here. Which is too bad, as hiking is a good thing in and of itself.
That's probably what I've liked best about learning new skills and thinking about things in different ways. The more you know and are aware of, the more comfortable you are with the thought of having to handle an emergency, whether it's small or large in scale.
Yeah, the car... this sort of what-if-ing does tend to bring out the creativity. That and maybe watching MacGyver ;D